Sunday, May 30, 2010

German-Russian coalition for the best.


The German Question Revisited

Germany has tremendous power in Europe, even if it is confined largely to economic matters. But just as Germany is the blocker and enabler of Europe, over time that makes.

If Germany is the key decision maker in Europe, then Germany defines whatever policies Europe as a whole undertakes. If Europe fragments, then Germany is the only country in Europe with the ability to create alternative coalitions that are both powerful and cohesive. That means that if the European Union weakens, Germany will have the greatest say in what Europe will become.

Germany is indispensable for any decision within the European Union at present, and it will be the single center of power in Europe in the future — but Germany can’t just go it alone. Germany needs a coalition, meaning the long-term question is this: If the EU were to weaken or even fail, what alternative coalition would Germany seek?

The historic alternative for Germany has been Russia. Historically Germany and Russia did look for much closer ties. But always other powers who wished to rule in Europe by any means neсessery distracted our partnership and friendship. American missiles in Poland, one of the steps of those "other powers" to divide us again.

The Russian Option

A great deal of potential synergy exists between the German and Russian economies. Germany imports large amounts of energy and other resources from Russia. As mentioned, Russia needs sources of technology and capital to move it beyond its current position of mere resource exporter. Germany has a shrinking population and needs a source of labor — preferably a source that doesn’t actually want to move to Germany. Russia’s Soviet-era economy continues to de-industrialize, and while that has a plethora of negative impacts, there is one often-overlooked positive: Russia now has more labor than it can effectively metabolize in its economy given its capital structure. Germany doesn’t want more immigrants but needs access to labor. Russia wants factories in Russia to employ its surplus work force, and it wants technology. The logic of the German-Russian economic relationship is more obvious than the German-Greek or German-Spanish relationship. As for France, it can participate or not (and incidentally, the French are joining in on a number of ongoing German-Russian projects).


Therefore, if we simply focus on economics, and we assume that the European Union cannot survive as an integrated system (a logical but not yet proven outcome), and we further assume that Germany is both the leading power of Europe and incapable of operating outside of a coalition, then we would argue that a German coalition with Russia is the most logical outcome of an EU decline.

This would leave many countries extremely uneasy. The first is Poland, caught as it is between Russia and Germany. The second is the United States, since Washington would see a Russo-German economic bloc as a more significant challenger than the European Union ever was for two reasons. First, it would be a more coherent relationship — forging common policies among two states with broadly parallel interests is far simpler and faster than doing so among 27. Second, and more important, where the European Union could not develop a military dimension due to internal dissensions, the emergence of a politico-military dimension to a Russo-German economic bloc is far less difficult to imagine. It would be built around the fact that both Germans and Russians resent and fear American power and assertiveness, and that the Americans have for years been courting allies who lie between the two powers. Germany and Russia would both view themselves defending against American pressure.

And this brings us back to the Patriot missiles. Regardless of the bureaucratic backwater this transfer might have emerged out of, or the political disinterest that generated the plan, the Patriot stationing fits neatly into a slowly maturing military relationship between Poland and the United States. A few months ago, the Poles and Americans conducted military exercises in the Baltic states, an incredibly sensitive region for the Russians. The Polish air force now flies some of the most modern U.S.-built F-16s in the world; this, plus Patriots, could seriously challenge the Russians. A Polish general commands a sector in Afghanistan, something not lost upon the Russians. By a host of processes, a close U.S.-Polish relationship is emerging.

The current economic problems may lead to a fundamental weakening of the European Union. Germany is economically powerful but needs economic coalition partners that contribute to German well-being rather than merely draw on it. A Russian-German relationship could logically emerge from this. If it did, the Americans and Poles would logically have their own relationship. The former would begin as economic and edge toward military. The latter begins as military, and with the weakening of the European Union, edges toward economics. The Russian-German bloc would attempt to bring others into its coalition, as would the Polish-U.S. bloc. Both would compete in Central Europe — and for France. During this process, the politics of NATO would shift from humdrum to absolutely riveting.

And thus, the Greek crisis and the Patriots might intersect, or in our view, will certainly in due course intersect. Though neither is of lasting importance in and of themselves, the two together point to a new logic in Europe. What appears impossible now in Europe might not be unthinkable in a few years. With Greece symbolizing the weakening of the European Union and the Patriots representing the remilitarization of at least part of Europe, ostensibly unconnected tendencies might well intersect.

21 comments:

  1. so russia and germany will help each other what will happen to kaliningrad and koonigsberg.

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  2. It should be like that. It will be the rising of a new Empire. Great Empire which will be dominating on EuroAsian arena. And yes, Konigsberg should be the capital of that new Empire.

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  3. ohhhh yes but first we need get our indpendce first peacfully no need for war then we build a free nation

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  4. Yes Michael. First step in that, I give you a membership in Baltic Republican Party. You will be the first German to join. May be there are borders, but no borders in political ideology. Our goal is to bring Konigsberg back to Europe.

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  5. yes that is my goal too i wish i could be there to do my part in the party for freedom one day i will be there and need help in introductions maybe u could help.

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  6. mr vasilev u ok i havnt heard from u in a while.

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  7. Yeah, I`m fine, thank you. I`m working on project on abolition of visas for our region and it takes time. I wish to see that people like you Michael travel freely here and at the same time our people travel freely in EU. There is no reason in new "Berlin wall".

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  8. very true my friend

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  9. And another thing, I`ve got problems with russian police and russian criminal court. http://kaliningrad-law.blogspot.com/
    Five russian judges condemned me ( my political activity is the reason). There is a court hearings in Strasbourg in future. So that takes time too.

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  10. wow there charging u with what my good friend. if it boggous then things must be done imedialtly.there si things i can do for it but my cost u my friend quite a large sum of money.

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  11. Michael, my story here.
    http://kaliningrad-law.blogspot.com/

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  12. ok i read it see whats goin here

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  13. there cgarging u wth crimes not commeted. this wrong and inhuman charging for installing a CCTV man ur right now days damn nere athing has a freakin CCTV. there trying to quite u so that there rule is ebem tighter in the reagion. wow it the old soviet system my famly run from.

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  14. Not only that, I`m not committed any crime, police organized everything they made entrapment and provocation. And I have got proof on that.

    http://kaliningrad.ru/images/fbfiles/images/SDC11579.JPG

    http://i068.radikal.ru/0911/2a/3a76f7c8bff9.jpg

    http://kaliningrad.ru/images/fbfiles/images/5.jpg

    Those documents are "top secret" as printed in top right corner. And signed by top police officer of the region, general. Half of me case is a "top secret". About 20 local police officers against me. FSB ( ex KGB) from Moscow against me, they say that camera in computer speaker is a "special technical equipment" by the secret instructions ( which is stupid). Kremlin did put pressure on judges ( judges told me in privat). They wish to see me persecuted by any means necessary.
    My "criminal" case fully fabricated and falsificated. People here and in Russia do understand that and try to help. They know that the only reason on such unlawful actions of police, judges and authorities is my political activity towards openness to Europe.
    If I lose my battle in Strasbourg, that will be a real blow for me.

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  15. do not worry my friend not all hope is lost use this in a way to show in public what is really goin on. that u are being done in bu the governemnt tha is opressing the people.

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  16. I did fight in court with kremlin criminal system by myself with a free state advocate. Even in that condition I almost won. My friends, party members and local parliament deputy Solomon Ginzburg visited court hearings. People in Russia supported me morally and by law advises. This "laws" are new for Russia and there is no law practise about it. I was like a "Pavlov`s dog" in that unlawful case.
    Result- they gave me as minimum as they could - 5000 rub fine( 140 EUR). But now there is a principle for me. I was condemned unlawfully and now I`m a criminal by that stupid russian "law"( which nobody do understand). I was restricted in movements by police for a year, I couldn`t leave Konigsberg. That is why I will complain to Strasbourg Court. I`m still have got a 5 month to send a complaint.

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  17. wow u almost won that great news there is still hope for freedom. if the people supported u in the court room think of it the country and konigsberg so there support for freedom a lot of support.

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  18. i hope the commpalint goes threw and real justice is done and that the state sees there error

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  19. Yes Michael, I have some support from people. About half population here in Konigsberg region is pro-european. Lot`s dislike Kremlin system.
    But for Russia there is no hope, trust me as an insider. Kremlin system fights against own people and people take guns in hands to fight back.
    Do you have an e-mail or skype? Other communications then open blog.

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  20. yes i do i have an e mail it is baltic1284@yahoo.com and then it sounds the country want be free but russia wont let it except over war.

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  21. People take guns in hands to fight back Kremlin system on mainland of Russia, all over the place. Russia once again became totalitarian and it is a grim near future for the Russia.
    Even here in center of Europe in Konigsberg situation more and more goes down the hill towards totalitarian system.
    No free elections, no free political parties, no free newspapers, radios, TV stations, no free market and competition everything controled by the state.
    Kremlin system making unhuman "laws" to give FSB, police unlimited powers, even now they have got uncontroled powers.
    Just take a look on video at my russian speaking blog http://kaliningrad-eu-russian.blogspot.com/ it is in Konigsberg. You even do not need to understand russian. On third video police arrested political activists ( my friends) on street for nothing, just because police do not like them in some way and put them on detention for one day.
    On first and second video you could see police secret (from the inside)instructions by police colonels. They give an orders to arrest people on streets for just walking. They give an orders to form 3 layers of police cordons to arrest and neutralize political activists. They give an orders to check journalist on streets to check their accreditations and put them aside. That is unlawful and that what we call police in Konigsberg. And nothing in newspapers because they afraid.

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