Sunday, May 30, 2010

German-Russian coalition for the best.

The German Question Revisited

Germany has tremendous power in Europe, even if it is confined largely to economic matters. But just as Germany is the blocker and enabler of Europe, over time that makes.

If Germany is the key decision maker in Europe, then Germany defines whatever policies Europe as a whole undertakes. If Europe fragments, then Germany is the only country in Europe with the ability to create alternative coalitions that are both powerful and cohesive. That means that if the European Union weakens, Germany will have the greatest say in what Europe will become.

Germany is indispensable for any decision within the European Union at present, and it will be the single center of power in Europe in the future — but Germany can’t just go it alone. Germany needs a coalition, meaning the long-term question is this: If the EU were to weaken or even fail, what alternative coalition would Germany seek?

The historic alternative for Germany has been Russia. Historically Germany and Russia did look for much closer ties. But always other powers who wished to rule in Europe by any means neсessery distracted our partnership and friendship. American missiles in Poland, one of the steps of those "other powers" to divide us again.

The Russian Option

A great deal of potential synergy exists between the German and Russian economies. Germany imports large amounts of energy and other resources from Russia. As mentioned, Russia needs sources of technology and capital to move it beyond its current position of mere resource exporter. Germany has a shrinking population and needs a source of labor — preferably a source that doesn’t actually want to move to Germany. Russia’s Soviet-era economy continues to de-industrialize, and while that has a plethora of negative impacts, there is one often-overlooked positive: Russia now has more labor than it can effectively metabolize in its economy given its capital structure. Germany doesn’t want more immigrants but needs access to labor. Russia wants factories in Russia to employ its surplus work force, and it wants technology. The logic of the German-Russian economic relationship is more obvious than the German-Greek or German-Spanish relationship. As for France, it can participate or not (and incidentally, the French are joining in on a number of ongoing German-Russian projects).

Therefore, if we simply focus on economics, and we assume that the European Union cannot survive as an integrated system (a logical but not yet proven outcome), and we further assume that Germany is both the leading power of Europe and incapable of operating outside of a coalition, then we would argue that a German coalition with Russia is the most logical outcome of an EU decline.

This would leave many countries extremely uneasy. The first is Poland, caught as it is between Russia and Germany. The second is the United States, since Washington would see a Russo-German economic bloc as a more significant challenger than the European Union ever was for two reasons. First, it would be a more coherent relationship — forging common policies among two states with broadly parallel interests is far simpler and faster than doing so among 27. Second, and more important, where the European Union could not develop a military dimension due to internal dissensions, the emergence of a politico-military dimension to a Russo-German economic bloc is far less difficult to imagine. It would be built around the fact that both Germans and Russians resent and fear American power and assertiveness, and that the Americans have for years been courting allies who lie between the two powers. Germany and Russia would both view themselves defending against American pressure.

And this brings us back to the Patriot missiles. Regardless of the bureaucratic backwater this transfer might have emerged out of, or the political disinterest that generated the plan, the Patriot stationing fits neatly into a slowly maturing military relationship between Poland and the United States. A few months ago, the Poles and Americans conducted military exercises in the Baltic states, an incredibly sensitive region for the Russians. The Polish air force now flies some of the most modern U.S.-built F-16s in the world; this, plus Patriots, could seriously challenge the Russians. A Polish general commands a sector in Afghanistan, something not lost upon the Russians. By a host of processes, a close U.S.-Polish relationship is emerging.

The current economic problems may lead to a fundamental weakening of the European Union. Germany is economically powerful but needs economic coalition partners that contribute to German well-being rather than merely draw on it. A Russian-German relationship could logically emerge from this. If it did, the Americans and Poles would logically have their own relationship. The former would begin as economic and edge toward military. The latter begins as military, and with the weakening of the European Union, edges toward economics. The Russian-German bloc would attempt to bring others into its coalition, as would the Polish-U.S. bloc. Both would compete in Central Europe — and for France. During this process, the politics of NATO would shift from humdrum to absolutely riveting.

And thus, the Greek crisis and the Patriots might intersect, or in our view, will certainly in due course intersect. Though neither is of lasting importance in and of themselves, the two together point to a new logic in Europe. What appears impossible now in Europe might not be unthinkable in a few years. With Greece symbolizing the weakening of the European Union and the Patriots representing the remilitarization of at least part of Europe, ostensibly unconnected tendencies might well intersect.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Mission Statement of the Baltic Republican Party. Part II.

Politics and economics 
Federal laws and certain provisions of the Constitution inspire public the illusion that today you can live better than you work. But this was possible before the 80-ies - until the former rulers have sold the bulk of natural resources to support the communist idea in other countries. 
The situation changed radically: to sell almost nothing, and continue to live better than what you have done by your work impossible. 
The only way out from that situation is to recognize the impossibility of implementation of some promises by the state. Reduction of the state obligations will lead to reduction of expenses and will give the chance to lower taxation burden on economically active part of a society. This will help revive the domestic economy even without western investments. Constant begging for cash by the present government humiliates national pride of Russians. 
Political self-determination of regional community and steps towards self-correction of economic situation will be the most powerful arguments in safety and benefit of financial investments in our region.
The most important element of the economic system should become a principle of life according to own income. The formation and acceptance of the budget with more than a 3% deficit should be prohibited by the Constitution. It liquidates variety of problems and will promote accumulation of own capital.
Essential value for Baltic Republic will be the place in world economy, not just in Russian economy. Attempts by the current leaders of the region to keep the same structure of management are fruitless. BRP believes that we should use the principle of comparative advantage, for example, world niche as an amber shop. 
Economics and Morality 
“No economy will rescue us, if the morals do not triumph" - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn wrote in his book "How can we build a new Russia." This idea is most closely reflects one of the main features of the changing socio-political formations in Russia. Enslaved by former and present regime, compatriots with a great difficulty gain inner freedom, and some citizens remain to the end the irreconcilable opponents of changes. Therefore, BRP which acting for freedom and morals, does not exclude reasonable compromises with carriers of other ideologies.
The main task for the authorities and politicians - to avoid confrontation in the society. The process of changing formations do not occur among the Russians, but within each one of us. 
The note 
Being guided by the norms of universal human morality, the Baltic Republican Party stands for the return historical name to our city with the world heritage - Königsberg.

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Mission Statement of the Baltic Republican Party. Part I.

As a member of the Baltic Republican Party I represent a program of BRP. The only party which is close to me by the ideology, objectives and in spirit. The activities of the party banned by the Kremlin. ~ baltia / 


In Russia there is a change of social and political formations. At the same time have already occurred stronger social relations, based on - the recognition of individual rights and freedoms, and equality remains in the form of equality of opportunity. 
But the ongoing processes occur extremely unevenly because of the vast territory of Russia. In some regions, democracy already yields the fruits, in others the power remains in the hands of the adherents of the old regime, or random people. However, the absence of real external enemies gives us a historic opportunity to establish democracy in small spaces, to achieve a more equitable social arrangements in a decentralized manner. This contributes to the basic principle upon which the Constitution of Russia is based - the principle of federalism. 
As a representative of the interests and express the will of the economically active part of society, Baltic Republican Party invites his fellow citizens to to make a choice in favour freedom and democracy, in favor of forming a region of an open society and the social market economy. BRP believes that social dependence must give way to the social responsibility of every citizen. 
Power and Policy 
The foreign policy of enclave situation that continue in existence is problematic for the prospects of our community. The reason - current legal status of region. Position of an ordinary subject of the Russian Federation and even the Federal law “About a special economic zone in the Kaliningrad region” are capable just to prolong the agony, but do not give chances for the future. In 2002, the neighboring Poland and Lithuania became members of the European Union, and the area appear alien - subject of isolation - a stain on a single political and economical map of the EU.  In this connection, BRP offers: 
to hold a referendum on status of our region, defining it as a sovereign state - The Baltic Republic - which is the subject of international law and at the same time - an associate entity of the Russian Federation; 
To hold an election of the Constituent Assembly, which will develop and adopt Constitution of the Baltic Republic, as well as the election of the President - as the main guarantor rights and freedoms of citizens; 
To hold an election of supreme legislative authority of the Republic, to be entrusted with the conclusion of the Treaty with Russia on the recognition of our right to sovereignty and the federal division of powers of the Russian Federation and the Baltic Republic. 
This will allow us to regulate  social, domestic economic and foreign relations. This will give us the right to apply for membership in the European Union and the chance that the Republic will become a place of communication and cooperation between the EU and Russia. 

Politics and economics

To be continued ...

Thursday, May 6, 2010 $ for Kremlin Fleet in Königsberg.

Ukraine secured a 30% discount for Russian natural gas, expected to cost Russia $40 bln in the next 10 years, in exchange for extending the lease of a Russian naval base.The accords on reducing the price of natural gas for Ukraine and extending the lease for the Russian Black Sea Fleet until 2042 were reached between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych at the last moment during their meeting in Kharkov in east Ukraine. The lease agreement extends Russian naval presence in the port of Sevastopol for 25 years after the current lease expires in 2017, and may be further extended by another five years.
As European demands on Russian gas drop, monopoly exporter Gazprom seeks to compensate the lower revenues with boosting prices on domestic sales. In 2009, domestic gas prices increased by 46 percent. The company is actively lobbying a further domestic price increase, which eventually will provide equal proportions of its revenues from domestic and foreign sales.That, however, will results in higher power prices for Russian industry, as well as for households. The lion’s share of Russian thermal power plants runs on gas, and higher prices will force them to raise tariffs on electricity and heating for the consumers.
Listen, I also want $ for naval presence of the Kremlin Baltic Fleet in Königsberg, and yes discounts on gas too. I do not know why, but in our region no natural gas in half of cities and villages. It is simply not available or we have expensive liquefied gas. Here for example in Mamonovo that near Polish border, my parents of retirement age without gas. And every election for decades candidates for mayor say that next year, in Mamonovo will be natural gas. Mayors come and go, but still no gas. Not only that we ourselves have got no gas, bloody Kremlin whip away my last money on "investment support" to Ukraine. Beat your own to someone else's fear - the motto of the Kremlin policy.
So here I am, without gas, without money, but with a donut hole - the Kremlin Fleet.

The Kaliningrad Regional Duma supported the project on abolition of visas for residents of the European Union.

The deputies of local Parliament ( Duma) unanimously supported the initiative on simplifying visa regime for EU citizens entering the territory of the Kaliningrad region.
The bill on simplification of visa regime for citizens of the European Union was designed by deputy of the regional Duma Solomon Ginzburg and representatives of the opposition. The introduction of visa-free entry into the region for residents of the European Union, according to project developers, can help residents of Kaliningrad, "after initiative towards the EU, we have the right to demand steps in our direction." Georgy Boos as Governer of Kaliningrad region promised to bring this initiative to the President Dmitry Medvedev. "I think that the decision would be at the right time in anticipation of EU-Russia summit which will be held in Rostov-on-Don on 30 May. Just before the summit, the Governor will meet with Dmitry Medvedev ", - said Deputy Solomon Ginsburg. The bill's authors suggest that the regional government need about a week on consideration of the issue. Let me remind you, 8 years ago, Solomon Ginsburg spoke with a similar legislative initiative, but it was not supported by the State Duma.
Letter to the Governer on simplification of visa regime, signed by the deputies of local Parliament.